{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "status": "retrospective_exploratory_not_clean_out_of_sample",
  "annual_reviews": [
    {
      "year": 2007,
      "as_of": "2007-12-31",
      "next_year": 2008,
      "tone": "低税与开放贸易框架下，以科研、生产率和能源多元化维持增长；本次已读材料集中年初，不能当作年末完整景气判断。",
      "primary_theme": "XLK",
      "secondary_theme": null,
      "policy_stage": "ERP 为行政政策主张；FY2008 NSF 增资为总统预算请求，未在本轮核对最终拨款。",
      "transmission_channel": "NSF 计算机、通信与纳米技术研究支持技术积累；映射 XLK 只是宽行业代理，政府科研经费未必流向其成分公司。",
      "counterevidence": "财政约束、长期商业化时滞；报告仍预期稳定增长，不能据此排除信贷与住房风险。",
      "confidence": "低",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2007",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2007/pdf/ERP-2007.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2007-02-12",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\erp_2007.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            7,
            8,
            9,
            40,
            63
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "continuing to pursue sound economic policy based on free-market principles",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\erp_2007_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF40 的预测定稿日为2006-11-13，不是2007年底的新预测。",
          "sha256": "17d2bda2cfa700d24c5f39aed8d6877d6e114e11b3362bf249b35003a9b09c9a",
          "publication_date_original": "2007-02-12"
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_2008_bud_27",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2008-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2008-BUD-27.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2007-02-05",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\chapters\\2008\\BUDGET-2008-BUD-27.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            1,
            2
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Networking and Information Technology Research and Development",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\budget_2008_bud_27_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "原件字体拆词严重；引文按正文词序合并断行。NSF章节PDF2，印刷136：拟增加NSF预算6.8%，NITRD为9.94亿美元。",
          "sha256": "0d4bbd7142a03f8022f3e0c2fca3e0364011ca417a803e811b1af400efd0047c",
          "publication_date_original": "2007-02-05"
        }
      ],
      "gaps": [
        "未补充审阅2007年下半年政策与信贷资料；政策信号可形成低置信度候选，不足以宣称完整年末观点。"
      ],
      "facts_vs_inference": "政策内容为所引原件事实；ETF 主题映射为研究者推断，不代表文件推荐该基金，也不代表已验证超额收益。",
      "primary_theme_label": "科技研发数字化（XLK）",
      "suggest_bil": true,
      "bil_recommendation": "2007方向仅为低置信度研究候选；若主规则要求完整年末信息，建议BIL，不应把年初科技愿景当成强信号。",
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLK"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "BIL"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "BIL": 1.0
      }
    },
    {
      "year": 2008,
      "as_of": "2008-12-31",
      "next_year": 2009,
      "tone": "从年初住房与信贷风险处置，转为秋季恢复金融体系流动性与稳定的紧急救助；行业盈利传导不清，防守优先。",
      "primary_theme": "BIL",
      "secondary_theme": null,
      "policy_stage": "EESA已于2008-10-03成为法律，授权TARP；ERP中的部分住房改革仍为主张。",
      "transmission_channel": "救助首先针对金融稳定和融资链条，无法仅由救助法推出哪一非金融行业翌年利润最受益；BIL是规则中的无明确行业信号回退。",
      "counterevidence": "救助也可能改善风险资产环境；防守不代表预测危机持续，也可能错失复苏。",
      "confidence": "中（危机与政策阶段清楚；收益方向不确定）",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2008",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2008/pdf/ERP-2008.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2008-02-11",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\erp_2008.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            3,
            4,
            5,
            42,
            73
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "there are heightened risks to our near-term economic growth",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\erp_2008_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF42明确承认近端利率预测已被事件超越；不使用其旧预测代替秋季信息。",
          "sha256": "9d45d61c7b6fffb189f7094faf98e31ecba488dc8652f0ee560be13298f7929e",
          "publication_date_original": "2008-02-11"
        },
        {
          "id": "policy_2008_eesa",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-110publ343/pdf/PLAW-110publ343.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2008-10-03",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\policy_2008_eesa.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            1,
            2,
            3
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "restore liquidity and stability to the financial system",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\policy_2008_eesa_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "核读法律宗旨与TARP授权，未把额度授权等同实际支出。",
          "sha256": "8bcf7509d3a4ab1c94df37216cae2f9287e4740bfd6d04824d3cfbba8be3a578",
          "publication_date_original": "2008-10-03"
        }
      ],
      "gaps": [
        "未全量核读2008年第四季度实施细则、财政部资本注入与联储公告；当前选择为研究回退。"
      ],
      "facts_vs_inference": "政策内容为所引原件事实；ETF 主题映射为研究者推断，不代表文件推荐该基金，也不代表已验证超额收益。",
      "primary_theme_label": "风险不清/防守（BIL）",
      "suggest_bil": true,
      "bil_recommendation": "建议BIL回退，金融稳定政策缺乏明确行业超额收益信号。",
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "BIL"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "BIL"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "BIL": 1.0
      }
    },
    {
      "year": 2009,
      "as_of": "2009-12-31",
      "next_year": 2010,
      "tone": "金融危机后的救急与财政再投资并行，已立法的交通、基础设施和科技投入形成比一般愿景更直接的需求渠道。",
      "primary_theme": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "XLK",
      "policy_stage": "ARRA已立法并包含拨款；FY2010预算是在此基础上的追加政策请求；2009 ERP属于前任政府年初报告。",
      "transmission_channel": "交通和公共工程支持设备与工程需求；宽带和技术投入支持数字基础设施。XLI/XLK不能完整代表获得拨款的私营承包商。",
      "counterevidence": "紧急稳定不等于私人最终需求恢复；预算承认政府不能单独创造长期增长，项目拨款到收入存在滞后。",
      "confidence": "中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2009",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2009/pdf/ERP-2009.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2009-01-16",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\erp_2009.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            7,
            8,
            10,
            56
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "a systemic, aggressive, and unprecedented Government response",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\erp_2009_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "ERP年初强调危机应对；其预测不得当作新政府预算结果。",
          "sha256": "333b323e3cbdce4ec2942266e89c8ff6f9ed997a012eb70a636399e111fc1e60",
          "publication_date_original": "2009-01-16"
        },
        {
          "id": "policy_2009_arra",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-111publ5/pdf/PLAW-111publ5.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2009-02-17",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\policy_2009_arra.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            1,
            2,
            4
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "To invest in transportation, environmental protection, and other infrastructure",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\policy_2009_arra_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF2为法定目标，PDF4列农村宽带25亿美元。",
          "sha256": "ab74a98128b6adec9cafa7d9fbc2a93745ee71f55c2f370b33af28207e2a4ac4",
          "publication_date_original": "2009-02-17"
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2010",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2010-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2010-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2009-02-26",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2010.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "we will begin to rebuild America",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\budget_fy2010_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "预算PDF8列修复道路桥梁学校、扩大宽带、科技投资；与ARRA同源政策，非独立验证其效果。",
          "sha256": "24102c85ff1d3120c8ad9e41d6a55043c2983decb24e74d27aa5c49d5e335fa2",
          "publication_date_original": "2009-02-26"
        }
      ],
      "gaps": [
        "没有逐合同/逐公司收入归属核对；未完整纳入2009年底支出执行数据。"
      ],
      "facts_vs_inference": "政策内容为所引原件事实；ETF 主题映射为研究者推断，不代表文件推荐该基金，也不代表已验证超额收益。",
      "primary_theme_label": "制造/基建投资（XLI）",
      "secondary_theme_label": "科技研发数字化（XLK）",
      "suggest_bil": false,
      "bil_recommendation": "本轮探索可保留所列主题；低至中置信主要源于执行与收益传导，暂不建议仅因此机械回退BIL；严格事前验证仍须补年末资料。",
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLK": 0.5
      }
    },
    {
      "year": 2010,
      "as_of": "2010-12-31",
      "next_year": 2011,
      "tone": "继续推动危机后的就业恢复，既有复苏法资金进入基础设施与智能电网实施，同时推动创新和出口。",
      "primary_theme": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "XLU",
      "policy_stage": "已立法ARRA正在拨款/授予补助；2011预算及新增就业方案仍包含请求。",
      "transmission_channel": "交通工程和电网投入有相对明确的资本开支渠道；电网现代化可能扩大公用事业投资，但监管回报和成本分摊决定股东收益。",
      "counterevidence": "就业仍疲弱，能源拨款并非已支出；ERP PDF260明确截至2009年底仅部分资金支付。XLU含传统公用事业，并非纯智能电网设备组合。",
      "confidence": "中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2010",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2010/pdf/ERP-2010.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2010-02-11",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2010.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            5,
            6,
            7,
            9,
            94,
            258,
            260
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "The Act is alsoinvesting in new technologies",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\erp_2010_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "抽取文本连字保留；PDF258是印刷244的Grid Modernization，PDF260区分obligated与outlayed。",
          "sha256": "1b2b0dded3175f5db89f2d38e7c4a5eed1f8a1224987128a681a951411786e79",
          "publication_date_original": "2010-02-11"
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2011",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2011-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2011-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2010-02-01",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2011.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            13
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "$3.4 billion in grants",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\budget_fy2011_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF13列智能电网补助、已资助交通工程，并说明部分复苏法资金计划在2010及2011年初投放。",
          "sha256": "fada9a029e49af51b8fb1cf506adc25d456c3e41eda9bc118d443ad6328e1c4a",
          "publication_date_original": "2010-02-01"
        }
      ],
      "gaps": [
        "未核验到年末每项补助执行；没有将政府估算新增就业当作ETF回报证据。"
      ],
      "facts_vs_inference": "政策内容为所引原件事实；ETF 主题映射为研究者推断，不代表文件推荐该基金，也不代表已验证超额收益。",
      "primary_theme_label": "制造/基建投资（XLI）",
      "secondary_theme_label": "电力电网/公用事业（XLU）",
      "suggest_bil": false,
      "bil_recommendation": "本轮探索可保留所列主题；低至中置信主要源于执行与收益传导，暂不建议仅因此机械回退BIL；严格事前验证仍须补年末资料。",
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLU": 0.5
      }
    },
    {
      "year": 2011,
      "as_of": "2011-12-31",
      "next_year": 2012,
      "tone": "从救助转向创新、教育和基础设施的长期增长基础，同时强调财政整顿；信息通信投入是较明确的候选方向。",
      "primary_theme": "XLK",
      "secondary_theme": "XLI",
      "policy_stage": "预算和交通新增投入主要为请求；ERP提及此前已通过的投资费用化及研发税收激励。",
      "transmission_channel": "研发与宽带/通信投入支持技术采用，交通投资支持工程设备需求；保持两项主题而非把所有政策都计为利好。",
      "counterevidence": "削减赤字与新增投资存在预算竞争；本轮阅读未覆盖年内后续立法和执行，无法把年初请求视作年末已落实。",
      "confidence": "低至中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2011",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2011/pdf/ERP-2011.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2011-02-28",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2011.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            7,
            8,
            9,
            52,
            54,
            66
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "criticalinvestmentsin theinformation andcommunication technology",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\erp_2011_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF66信息通信、宽带和无线频谱；PDF52预测用2010-11-17信息，早于2010年底税法。",
          "sha256": "abce597e2a69c523af1d416e3f4d3e07a0e9fcd0ce0a6e2c7e47afc9bb3933e6",
          "publication_date_original": "2011-02",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2012",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2012-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2012-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2011-02-14",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2012.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            5,
            16
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "investing in research and development",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\budget_fy2012_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF5在财政约束下提出创新及基建，PDF16说明汽车救助和住房稳定历史，不用作对下一年价格预测。",
          "sha256": "67c967355f3b3472af57cbd86fdfbc48414c0e9a9c3493de3ccbe074f178c456",
          "publication_date_original": "2011-02-14"
        }
      ],
      "gaps": [
        "2011年后半财政政策变更尚未逐项核读；建议作为低置信度历史情景而非严格事前可执行信号。"
      ],
      "facts_vs_inference": "政策内容为所引原件事实；ETF 主题映射为研究者推断，不代表文件推荐该基金，也不代表已验证超额收益。",
      "primary_theme_label": "科技研发数字化（XLK）",
      "secondary_theme_label": "制造/基建投资（XLI）",
      "suggest_bil": false,
      "bil_recommendation": "本轮探索可保留所列主题；低至中置信主要源于执行与收益传导，暂不建议仅因此机械回退BIL；严格事前验证仍须补年末资料。",
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLK",
        "XLI"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLK",
        "XLI"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLK": 0.5,
        "XLI": 0.5
      }
    },
    {
      "year": 2012,
      "as_of": "2012-12-31",
      "next_year": 2013,
      "tone": "将制造业、创新及就业作为复苏基础，推进能源来源多元化；仍强调财政可持续与经济恢复并行。",
      "primary_theme": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "XLK",
      "policy_stage": "ERP及FY2013预算主体为行政主张/预算请求；现有复苏措施与新提案不得混为一谈。",
      "transmission_channel": "国内制造、先进制造与研发支持构成行业方向；能源多元化同时涵盖化石与清洁能源，不能直接等同全面看多原油。",
      "counterevidence": "财政空间与国会执行是约束；ERP仍是有条件的复苏预测，政策支持并不证明估值便宜。",
      "confidence": "低至中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2012",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2012/pdf/ERP-2012.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2012-02-29",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2012.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            7,
            8,
            74,
            250
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "American manufacturing, American energy",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\erp_2012_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF250解释all-of-the-above包含油气、核能、清洁煤和可再生能源，不构成XLE独占支持。",
          "sha256": "a15d06e84211b8009122ef93340d2438b2eca9d3a93fa92ec2ba01c37fd73b7a",
          "publication_date_original": "2012-02",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2013",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2013-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2013-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2012-02-13",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2013.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            9,
            13,
            14
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "cyber-security, nano-technology, and advanced manufacturing",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\budget_fy2013_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "预算PDF14明确此前Jobs Act多项未获通过，不能把继续提出当成已获拨款。",
          "sha256": "4f6c39e5fc87b228ada7cd79b0ee73f59a5ad39940e936551ac68c19a8acce82",
          "publication_date_original": "2012-02-13"
        }
      ],
      "gaps": [
        "缺少当年末财政谈判与最终拨款逐项核验；宽ETF与政策受益主体对应较粗。"
      ],
      "facts_vs_inference": "政策内容为所引原件事实；ETF 主题映射为研究者推断，不代表文件推荐该基金，也不代表已验证超额收益。",
      "primary_theme_label": "制造/基建投资（XLI）",
      "secondary_theme_label": "科技研发数字化（XLK）",
      "suggest_bil": false,
      "bil_recommendation": "本轮探索可保留所列主题；低至中置信主要源于执行与收益传导，暂不建议仅因此机械回退BIL；严格事前验证仍须补年末资料。",
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLK": 0.5
      }
    },
    {
      "year": 2013,
      "as_of": "2013-12-31",
      "next_year": 2014,
      "tone": "支持制造回流、先进制造中心和基础设施修复，同时寻求在财政紧缩压力下维护长期研发与就业。",
      "primary_theme": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "XLK",
      "policy_stage": "总统报告与FY2014预算中的扩建制造中心、500亿美元前置基建属请求；并非全部已获国会资金。",
      "transmission_channel": "制造中心连接企业与研究机构，基建修复形成设备和工程需求；科技研发是次级长期传导。",
      "counterevidence": "ERP本身承认复苏曾被高估，消费去杠杆、外部环境和财政约束影响兑现；年度政策文件难给出明确收益择时。",
      "confidence": "低至中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2013",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2013/pdf/ERP-2013.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2013-03-31",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2013.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            7,
            8,
            40,
            88,
            89
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "making America a magnet for new jobs and manufacturing",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\erp_2013_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF89专门检视预测误差，不将官方乐观预测直接当作投资胜率。",
          "sha256": "bd85dbf15d6d589ef7f1d4a2177dd700c83146a2ab394880ff98fcb15837057b",
          "publication_date_original": "2013-03",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2014",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2014-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2014-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2013-04-10",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2014.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            6
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "$50 billion for up-front infrastructure investments",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\budget_fy2014_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF6所列Fix-it-First和Rebuild America Partnership为预算提议。",
          "sha256": "0d854452922e5426eaa8d4bd53baa139cb0e781efff7de4596df89dcd6c6c013",
          "publication_date_original": "2013-04-10"
        }
      ],
      "gaps": [
        "未核读当年末预算协议与各部门最终拨款，不能认定所有请求获批准。"
      ],
      "facts_vs_inference": "政策内容为所引原件事实；ETF 主题映射为研究者推断，不代表文件推荐该基金，也不代表已验证超额收益。",
      "primary_theme_label": "制造/基建投资（XLI）",
      "secondary_theme_label": "科技研发数字化（XLK）",
      "suggest_bil": false,
      "bil_recommendation": "本轮探索可保留所列主题；低至中置信主要源于执行与收益传导，暂不建议仅因此机械回退BIL；严格事前验证仍须补年末资料。",
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLK": 0.5
      }
    },
    {
      "year": 2014,
      "as_of": "2014-12-31",
      "next_year": 2015,
      "tone": "制造业创新与基础设施仍为主线，清洁电力、电网现代化和能源效率是可识别的补充；政策同时受到财政额度约束。",
      "primary_theme": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "XLU",
      "policy_stage": "既有四个制造创新中心已启动；新增中心和电网效率竞赛主要为FY2015预算请求，财政框架已有两党协议。",
      "transmission_channel": "工业制造中心与基础设施支持工业需求；电网现代化关联公用事业资本开支。XLU是粗代理，碳标准也可能增加既有机组成本。",
      "counterevidence": "对公用事业而言清洁转型既有投资也有合规成本；原件增长预测假设预算获通过，不能拿该假设证明政策会兑现。",
      "confidence": "低至中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2014",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2014/pdf/ERP-2014.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2014-03-31",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2014.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            9,
            89,
            113
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "hubs for innovation",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\erp_2014_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF89说明预测基于2013-11-21信息且假设总统预算获通过；PDF113的财政乘数是估算不是基金回报。",
          "sha256": "96dc8f764cb511ed9bfc4d23c2ca6f1b8b097bb3eabec3a3fba74b8fed1d3e6d",
          "publication_date_original": "2014-03",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2015",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2015-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2015-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2014-03-04",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2015.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            5,
            6,
            14,
            16
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Energy Efficiency and Grid Modernization",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\budget_fy2015_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF6区分已启动四个中心和新增请求；PDF16电网竞赛位于额外投资倡议。",
          "sha256": "bb6dcf310527d3f4f1918fc94dd87eca84060ced67280bc8a8c5f64e1867d0bb",
          "publication_date_original": "2014-03-04"
        }
      ],
      "gaps": [
        "未据2015年发布文件追填2014年底已知事实；2014年底行业立法/最终拨款还需补证。"
      ],
      "facts_vs_inference": "政策内容为所引原件事实；ETF 主题映射为研究者推断，不代表文件推荐该基金，也不代表已验证超额收益。",
      "primary_theme_label": "制造/基建投资（XLI）",
      "secondary_theme_label": "电力电网/公用事业（XLU）",
      "suggest_bil": false,
      "bil_recommendation": "本轮探索可保留所列主题；低至中置信主要源于执行与收益传导，暂不建议仅因此机械回退BIL；严格事前验证仍须补年末资料。",
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLU": 0.5
      }
    },
    {
      "year": 2015,
      "as_of": "2015-12-31",
      "next_year": 2016,
      "tone": "在经济修复基础上推动中产收入、先进制造、研发和基础设施；已形成部分制造网络法律基础，但扩张规模仍依赖新增预算。",
      "primary_theme": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "XLK",
      "policy_stage": "FY2016预算记录2014年底制造创新网络法律已通过及已有研究所；新增研究所、研发增支、4780亿美元交通方案主要为请求。",
      "transmission_channel": "公共研发与先进制造网络促进创新扩散；交通基础设施提案支持工业需求。XLK更偏大型信息技术企业，与政府研发受益面并不完全重合。",
      "counterevidence": "预算谈判与紧缩回归风险仍存在；ERP长期增长路径假定改革落地，利率上升预期可能压低估值，政策好不代表投资一定好。",
      "confidence": "中（方向）；低（年度超额收益）",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2015",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2015/pdf/ERP-2015.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2015-02-28",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2015.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            9,
            10,
            92,
            94
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Investments in science, technology, and research and development",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\erp_2015_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF94的2016以后预测假设基建、税制、贸易等提案获实施；不能当作既成事实。",
          "sha256": "034722ac6625c9c4b9bdfe71e310fd62f507e181eb519e21329adb56db814b0e",
          "publication_date_original": "2015-02",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2016",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2016-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2016-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2015-02-02",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2016.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            21,
            22,
            29
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "The Budget provides $146 billion for R&D overall",
          "reviewed_text_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\evidence_2007_2015\\budget_fy2016_reviewed_pages.txt",
          "reading_scope": "仅核读所列 PDF 页，未全文审阅；缓存自动提取不等于人工逐页阅读。",
          "notes": "PDF21记录制造网络法律和实施，PDF22列研发总请求及新增研究所，PDF29交通方案为proposal。",
          "sha256": "a4659d399fa7887033b0a07b9f5e861873e80c21e4b53d892bb93c9989338665",
          "publication_date_original": "2015-02-02"
        }
      ],
      "gaps": [
        "未逐项读取2015年底最终立法和拨款；不将次年ERP的回顾回填本年信号。"
      ],
      "facts_vs_inference": "政策内容为所引原件事实；ETF 主题映射为研究者推断，不代表文件推荐该基金，也不代表已验证超额收益。",
      "primary_theme_label": "制造/基建投资（XLI）",
      "secondary_theme_label": "科技研发数字化（XLK）",
      "suggest_bil": false,
      "bil_recommendation": "本轮探索可保留所列主题；低至中置信主要源于执行与收益传导，暂不建议仅因此机械回退BIL；严格事前验证仍须补年末资料。",
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLK": 0.5
      }
    },
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "as_of": "2016-12-31",
      "next_year": 2017,
      "tone": "复苏延续，强调生产率、基础设施和创新；年底文件仍为卸任政府路线，政策延续性不足。",
      "primary_theme": "制造/基建投资",
      "primary_etf": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "科技研发数字化",
      "secondary_etf": "XLK",
      "policy_stage": "已执行交通投入与研发政策的延续，加上2017财年预算请求；不把请求视为已拨款。",
      "transmission_channel": "公共交通工程与设备需求带动工业链；研发、数字化推动技术投入。",
      "counterevidence": "换届后路线可变；2016 ERP预期投资加速但同时提示海外需求疲弱，研发成果未必由XLK成分股兑现。",
      "confidence": "中低",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2016",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2016/pdf/ERP-2016.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2016-02-29",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2016.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            9,
            10,
            56,
            111,
            212,
            256
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "The Economic Benefits of Investing in U.S. Infrastructure",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "总统致辞强调创新；技术和基础设施章节解释生产率渠道；展望仍有全球需求风险。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2016",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2015",
            "metadata_record_change": "2016-02-20",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "6eb3c480f1235446e468adafff732a3e97e593fd4bce67b7a4832b759bd6d679",
          "publication_date_original": "2016-02",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "erp_2017",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2017/pdf/ERP-2017.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2016-12-15",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2017.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            7,
            9,
            69
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "boosting funding for infrastructure and research and development",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "该2017版实际于2016-12-15发布，应归2016；卸任政府要求长周期基建与研发投入。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2017",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2016",
            "metadata_record_change": "2019-03-20",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "c2bb6c090f88be2d7656572b568a3c7113756f938dea9c63e515f1e077f741b0",
          "publication_date_original": "2016-12-15"
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2017",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2017-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2017-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2016-02-09",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2017.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            9,
            10
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "double clean energy research and development funding",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "2016年公布的2017财年预算提出研发和清洁交通投资，属于请求。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "ab43b457cec8e7e946bf369cc2ca83a7f553dcef8a63a4e0d808416759076116",
          "publication_date_original": "2016-02-09"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "归档未包含2016年底继任政府的完整可核定政策方案，不能假定原路线延续。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLK": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "归档未包含2016年底继任政府的完整可核定政策方案，不能假定原路线延续。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "as_of": "2017-12-31",
      "next_year": 2018,
      "tone": "政策转向减监管、国内能源开发及基建/国防投入；能源预测只作供需约束。",
      "primary_theme": "传统能源供给",
      "primary_etf": "XLE",
      "secondary_theme": "制造/基建投资",
      "secondary_etf": "XLI",
      "policy_stage": "2018财年预算请求及行政减监管方向；未核读2017税法原件，不能把预算税改方案直接当成通过版本。",
      "transmission_channel": "放宽开发与许可可扩大油气供给；基建和国防采购带动设备、工程与工业订单。",
      "counterevidence": "AEO明确是条件情景而非预测；供给增加可能降低油气价格，损害生产商利润；基建拨款仍需立法。",
      "confidence": "中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2018",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2018-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2018-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2017-05-23",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2018.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            13
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "We must increase development of America’s energy resources",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "总统预算强调国内能源开发、增加国防资源，并提出简化基建审批。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "323060e336be3ce8e7eefde9143b7818e137181a5d35ded6fb330ff21f1fa3cb",
          "publication_date_original": "2017-05-23"
        },
        {
          "id": "eia_2017_report_0",
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/aeo17/pdf/0383(2017).pdf",
          "publication_date": "2017-01-05",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\raw\\EIA\\eia_\\eia_2017_report_0.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            2,
            3,
            4
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "not predictions of what will happen",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "AEO预计强供给与平缓需求使净出口增加，但现行法情景未纳入后来提出的政策。",
          "role": "行业约束与反证",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Downloaded current official historical-vintage artifact; initial-release byte identity unverified.",
          "sha256": "4c25fb27d4e89c734a55dbe3b0ca9a8945333ad60b32e0283f587748e30a736d",
          "publication_date_original": "2017-01-05"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "ERP2017实际发表于2016，不能当作2017新政府报告；本年主方向来自2017-05预算。",
        "尚缺2017年底已通过政策原件与执行进度，置信度不提升为高。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLE",
        "XLI"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLE",
        "XLI"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLE": 0.5,
        "XLI": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "ERP2017实际发表于2016，不能当作2017新政府报告；本年主方向来自2017-05预算。",
        "尚缺2017年底已通过政策原件与执行进度，置信度不提升为高。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "as_of": "2018-12-31",
      "next_year": 2019,
      "tone": "减税与减监管已成为投资刺激主轴，基础设施扩张和能源主导政策并行。",
      "primary_theme": "制造/基建投资",
      "primary_etf": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "传统能源供给",
      "secondary_etf": "XLE",
      "policy_stage": "税改已生效（ERP与预算当时记载）；新增基建仍为请求，能源行政政策延续。",
      "transmission_channel": "资本成本降低与设备投资激励有利工业资本开支；能源开发政策支持产量和出口。",
      "counterevidence": "ERP增长预测以完整实施议程为条件；新增基建可能未获资金；增产也可压低商品价格，能源行业并不必然盈利。",
      "confidence": "中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2018",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2018/pdf/ERP-2018.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2018-02-28",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2018.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            10,
            25,
            164,
            165
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Infrastructure Investment to Boost Productivity",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "核读总统致辞、宏观预测摘要和基建章节：政策强调税改、资本投入与审批改革，宏观预测依赖议程落实。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2018",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2017",
            "metadata_record_change": "2019-03-20",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "816c22413f4c353176cfdba4166b98ee24667aa6e98697ea96dd7c7ca57925ee",
          "publication_date_original": "2018-02",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2019",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2019-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2019-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2018-02-12",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2019.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            5,
            6,
            9,
            10
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "driving America toward energy dominance",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "预算记载税改已经通过，提出基础设施建设以及能源出口方向。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "0714b7b08e3e7fc2ef34e848deadefbe9f21a9630b51fa4d7c7bf33103ca2201",
          "publication_date_original": "2018-02-12"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "只核读报告与预算中的当时税改状态说明，未核读独立税法原件。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLE"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLE"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLE": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "只核读报告与预算中的当时税改状态说明，未核读独立税法原件。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "as_of": "2019-12-31",
      "next_year": 2020,
      "tone": "能源供给和出口扩张继续，AI、5G及先进制造被明确列为未来产业。",
      "primary_theme": "传统能源供给",
      "primary_etf": "XLE",
      "secondary_theme": "科技研发数字化",
      "secondary_etf": "XLK",
      "policy_stage": "能源减监管方向已执行；科技政策支持与2020财年预算仍含请求。",
      "transmission_channel": "油气产能和出口基础设施扩大行业活动；AI、5G及技术研发可能增加数字基础设施和软件硬件需求。",
      "counterevidence": "ERP自身列举海外增长放缓和议程未落实风险；能源增产不等于油价上涨；AI章节同时强调劳动力冲击和网络安全成本。",
      "confidence": "中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2019",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2019/pdf/ERP-2019.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2019-03-19",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2019.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            10,
            25,
            26,
            252,
            253,
            344
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and 5G technology",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "总统致辞列出未来产业，能源章强调产量和出口，AI章并列生产率机会与冲击。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2019",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2018",
            "metadata_record_change": "2019-03-19",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "6c6f352ca477b5bac8b93fee26ea67f2ec1d6b12eef13fb4dc292ef34c975932",
          "publication_date_original": "2019-03-19"
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2020",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2020-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2020-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2019-03-11",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2020.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            5,
            10,
            27,
            28
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "unleashing American energy production",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "预算延续能源生产、未来产业和基础设施方向，国防采购是工业需求补充。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "e72cd17d59db2589290f839274aa1ca233cbdf2868f86340045200c82a99ab81",
          "publication_date_original": "2019-03-11"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "未读全年贸易政策、预算最终通过文本及行业估值；不能称完整年底政策判断。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLE",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLE",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLE": 0.5,
        "XLK": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "未读全年贸易政策、预算最终通过文本及行业估值；不能称完整年底政策判断。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "as_of": "2020-12-31",
      "next_year": 2021,
      "tone": "年初扩张叙事被疫情冲击打断；现有归档不足以重建年底行业政策，回退短债观察。",
      "primary_theme": "风险不清/防守",
      "primary_etf": "BIL",
      "secondary_theme": null,
      "secondary_etf": null,
      "policy_stage": "防守为资料不足的研究规则；并非政府要求买短债。",
      "transmission_channel": "不依据失效的年初行业展望下注，保留流动性，等补齐疫情后政策证据。",
      "counterevidence": "9月CBO摘要仍预期疫情效应淡出但债务风险上升；防守会错过潜在复苏，不能事后视为择时成功。",
      "confidence": "低",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2020",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2020/pdf/ERP-2020.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2020-02-20",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2020.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            11,
            12,
            142,
            300
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "The Outlook for a Continued Expansion",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "2月报告仍以扩张、税改和能源独立为基础，无法代表疫情后的全年路线。",
          "role": "过时背景，不能形成年底积极行业信号",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2020",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2019",
            "metadata_record_change": "2020-02-20",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "2204f8617582e0bc260dbb6519556268d8175914accd9fe094980dfd8d8abf54",
          "publication_date_original": "2020-02-20"
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2021",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2021-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2021-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2020-02-10",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2021.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            5,
            6
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "2月预算同属疫情前政策请求，不据此选择2021行业。",
          "role": "过时背景",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "8b681804021f9c7cf588cc09f1438b8ab832b3aabe0a81832a6df0cdb1e6cc94",
          "publication_date_original": "2020-02-10"
        },
        {
          "id": "cbo_web_long_term_2020",
          "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56516",
          "publication_date": "2020-09-21",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\web_evidence\\long_term_2020.txt",
          "pdf_pages": [],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Even after the effects of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic fade",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "9月21日网页摘要讨论疫情财政影响及长期债务风险；只有摘要，未读取报告PDF。",
          "role": "宏观冲击与资料不足依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Current official page text; may describe corrections to prior release.",
          "sha256": "ce091b81c262198995a1b92e21bf8c39ed05b8a68578bbf6b245f87a6681a6c5",
          "publication_date_original": "2020-09-21"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "缺CARES及疫情后财政、疫苗、基建政策原件；不可使用2021 ERP对2020的回顾倒填。",
        "CBO证据为网页摘要L55—81，非完整报告。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "BIL"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "BIL"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "BIL": 1.0
      },
      "gaps": [
        "缺CARES及疫情后财政、疫苗、基建政策原件；不可使用2021 ERP对2020的回顾倒填。",
        "CBO证据为网页摘要L55—81，非完整报告。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "as_of": "2021-12-31",
      "next_year": 2022,
      "tone": "新政府把经济修复与交通、清洁电力、电网及宽带建设结合；方向清楚，资金实施证据不完整。",
      "primary_theme": "制造/基建投资",
      "primary_etf": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "电力电网/公用事业",
      "secondary_etf": "XLU",
      "policy_stage": "2022财年预算及American Jobs Plan请求；依据本次核读不能把全部提议当作已立法执行。",
      "transmission_channel": "交通工程增加工业订单；电网、输电和清洁电力资本开支可能扩大公用事业资产基础。",
      "counterevidence": "EIA对疫情后恢复速度及能源成本存在多情景；大型工程审批、融资和监管回报可能限制利润。XLU并非清洁能源设备ETF。",
      "confidence": "中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2022",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2022-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2022-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2021-05-28",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2022.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            6,
            13,
            14
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Delivers Clean Drinking Water, a Renewed Electric Grid",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "5月预算明确提出交通、输电、清洁能源和宽带投资，核读为请求阶段。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "81e8a7cd2cec37dbdc2698d30799ab047c7e211a8906f58970c302cbef75b695",
          "publication_date_original": "2021-05-28"
        },
        {
          "id": "eia_2021_report_0",
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/archive/aeo21/pdf/AEO_Narrative_2021.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2021-02-03",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\raw\\EIA\\eia_\\eia_2021_report_0.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            3,
            4
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "modeled projections of what may happen",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "AEO用不同增长、油价、资源及可再生成本情景说明恢复与能源结构不确定。",
          "role": "情景约束",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Downloaded current official historical-vintage artifact; initial-release byte identity unverified.",
          "sha256": "cac6e94f4b114128d42af51f1896452e3e22d9aac4cde380ab9e64f1ee798e29",
          "publication_date_original": "2021-02-03"
        },
        {
          "id": "erp_2021",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2021/pdf/ERP-2021.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2021-01-31",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2021.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            9,
            10,
            27
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "substantial risks remain, including both pandemic and policy risks",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "1月旧政府ERP讨论恢复风险，作为年初背景，不代表后来新政府路线。",
          "role": "旧政府背景",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2021",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2020",
            "metadata_record_change": "2022-04-06",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "a762312309f481ca283d0169247b24a278d58c073c22e2b9ff37b250a1eb8c18",
          "publication_date_original": "2021-01",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "尚缺本年基建法原件与当年执行公告；未用2022 ERP对2021立法的回述充作同期证据。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLU": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "尚缺本年基建法原件与当年执行公告；未用2022 ERP对2021立法的回述充作同期证据。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "as_of": "2022-12-31",
      "next_year": 2023,
      "tone": "政策从方向提议转入半导体与清洁电力的明确立法支持，同时面临通胀和供应约束。",
      "primary_theme": "科技研发数字化",
      "primary_etf": "XLK",
      "secondary_theme": "电力电网/公用事业",
      "secondary_etf": "XLU",
      "policy_stage": "CHIPS与IRA已立法；拨款不等于全数发放或项目已投产。",
      "transmission_channel": "CHIPS基金支持半导体资本开支和研发；IRA电力税收抵免与输电融资降低部分项目融资成本。",
      "counterevidence": "技术企业面对周期和竞争；电网项目审批及成本可能延迟回报；清洁电力政策不等于整个XLU成分同等受益。ERP预算预测在2021年11月已冻结，不能当作年末最新预测。",
      "confidence": "中高（政策事实），中（ETF传导）",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2022",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2022/pdf/ERP-2022.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2022-04-30",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2022.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            9,
            11,
            50,
            94,
            226,
            227
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Accelerating and Smoothing the Clean Energy Transition",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "报告强调供给能力与清洁能源转型，并指出通胀和战争供给冲击；宏观预测存在时滞。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2022",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2021",
            "metadata_record_change": "2025-04-03",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "7c5dc7644afe120da6e742eb9cab2b4d90e4205d3f41b116e2e7258c4c59d1f2",
          "publication_date_original": "2022-04",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "policy_chips_2022",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-117publ167/pdf/PLAW-117publ167.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2022-08-09",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\policy_chips_2022.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            2,
            8
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "8月9日法律建立CHIPS基金，并提供当年及后续拨款。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Original enacted law, not consolidated current law. Subsequent amendments and individual effective dates must be reviewed.",
          "sha256": "d54282d575a016ea573ddffe5a40177362a3088720582ab750f15a5cd0ae3e65",
          "publication_date_original": "2022-08-09"
        },
        {
          "id": "policy_ira_2022",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-117publ169/pdf/PLAW-117publ169.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2022-08-16",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\policy_ira_2022.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            90,
            97,
            230
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "TRANSMISSION FACILITY FINANCING",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "8月16日法律延长电力税收抵免，并安排输电设施直接贷款成本资金。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Original enacted law, not consolidated current law. Subsequent amendments and individual effective dates must be reviewed.",
          "sha256": "5bd9bebe719d3d1738e751fe7978ef7bf05167ed8150471f306e010185baed4f",
          "publication_date_original": "2022-08-16"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "仅核读上述条款，未全面审查资格、税务细则和已拨付金额。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLK",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLK",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLK": 0.5,
        "XLU": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "仅核读上述条款，未全面审查资格、税务细则和已拨付金额。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "as_of": "2023-12-31",
      "next_year": 2024,
      "tone": "核心是执行既有基础设施和清洁能源立法，扩产、修复供给及控制通胀并行。",
      "primary_theme": "制造/基建投资",
      "primary_etf": "XLI",
      "secondary_theme": "电力电网/公用事业",
      "secondary_etf": "XLU",
      "policy_stage": "已立法、部分项目已执行（ERP和预算载明）；新增预算措施仍为请求。",
      "transmission_channel": "建设项目与设备采购形成工业需求；电网、充电网络和发电投资形成长期资本开支。",
      "counterevidence": "政府叙述存在宣传倾向；预算中大型投资承诺包含私人计划，不能等同已实现营收。通胀、利率及成本控制可侵蚀工程利润。",
      "confidence": "中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2023",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2023/pdf/ERP-2023.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2023-03-31",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2023.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            9,
            26,
            27,
            56,
            89
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "over 20,000 construction projects",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "总统致辞记载已资助建设项目，并强调CHIPS及IRA，增长章节以增加供给能力为核心。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2023",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2022",
            "metadata_record_change": "2025-04-03",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "651e037dc3e12753417c3a565b2ac1b0c963e5c99c77b90808f65db643d7fb5a",
          "publication_date_original": "2023-03",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2024",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2024-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2024-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2023-03-09",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2024.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            6,
            7,
            10
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "预算把三项既有法律的落实作为重点，并继续提出新增投入。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "cfb0751f9ef9f60e356f4808f3231c03af802ae63a4fc0f391bdc174bd3fe28a",
          "publication_date_original": "2023-03-09"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "未逐项目核实拨款、开工和收入确认；ERP、预算均为同一政府路线陈述。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLI",
        "XLU"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLI": 0.5,
        "XLU": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "未逐项目核实拨款、开工和收入确认；ERP、预算均为同一政府路线陈述。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "as_of": "2024-12-31",
      "next_year": 2025,
      "tone": "继续执行先进制造和基础设施政策；年内半导体最终奖励比一般愿景提供了更明确的执行证据。",
      "primary_theme": "科技研发数字化",
      "primary_etf": "XLK",
      "secondary_theme": "制造/基建投资",
      "secondary_etf": "XLI",
      "policy_stage": "既有立法执行，11月TSMC最终奖励附项目里程碑；新预算请求未视为通过。",
      "transmission_channel": "半导体工厂、相关研发与制造投资带动科技供应链及工业设备；基础设施项目继续产生工程需求。",
      "counterevidence": "TSMC为一家企业且并非所有受益映射到XLK；奖金按里程碑发放，资金承诺不等于利润。年底换届可能改变后续执行；未用2025政策反填。",
      "confidence": "中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2024",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2024/pdf/ERP-2024.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2024-03-31",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2024.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            66,
            103,
            216,
            217,
            248
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "strengthen America’s semiconductor and advanced manufacturing industries",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "总统报告明确半导体和制造投资；同时核读清洁能源、AI与利率风险章节，AI商业效果仍不确定。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2024",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2023",
            "metadata_record_change": "2025-04-03",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "2f8bf287fab050bc3213a0a53feac974c6a0b1862193c59d8530453555ff3aa1",
          "publication_date_original": "2024-03",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2025",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2025-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2025-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2024-03-11",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2025.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            5,
            9,
            10
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "supporting advanced manufacturing",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "预算继续既有投资路线，新增建议仍属请求。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "3f1df41cfa3cebfd675b2a6ed673b6f665e0848c293d8d3bb5ab1815a0bae36b",
          "publication_date_original": "2024-03-11"
        },
        {
          "id": "policy_tsmc_final_2024_nist",
          "url": "https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/11/biden-harris-administration-announces-chips-incentives-award-tsmc-arizona",
          "publication_date": "2024-11-15",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\policy_tsmc_final_2024_nist.html",
          "pdf_pages": [],
          "evidence_excerpt": "completion of project milestones",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "11月15日商务部NIST公告已最终奖励TSMC最高66亿美元，支持三座厂、私人计划投资超过650亿美元，按项目里程碑拨款。",
          "role": "执行证据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "released": "2024-11-15",
            "page_updated": "2025-10-06",
            "relation_to": "policy_tsmc_final_2024",
            "note": "Same agency announcement via NIST archive. Updated page, not certified original2024 bytes."
          },
          "sha256": "12a1772b7a846967905992ac7c6d0544238a906cfce322a2f5d62a0c67c2a5ff",
          "publication_date_original": "2024-11-15"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "未取得2024年底继任政府完整政策原件；不假定既有路线长期不变。",
        "NIST证据为网页正文，pdf_pages为空，非PDF。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLK",
        "XLI"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLK",
        "XLI"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLK": 0.5,
        "XLI": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "未取得2024年底继任政府完整政策原件；不假定既有路线长期不变。",
        "NIST证据为网页正文，pdf_pages为空，非PDF。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "as_of": "2025-12-31",
      "next_year": 2026,
      "tone": "年初旧政府绿色产业叙事被年中已通过法律显著改写；国内油气开发与资本开支减税成为更直接信号。",
      "primary_theme": "传统能源供给",
      "primary_etf": "XLE",
      "secondary_theme": "制造/基建投资",
      "secondary_etf": "XLI",
      "policy_stage": "7月OBBBA已立法；2026财年裁减/增支预算仍为请求；实际执行效果待核实。",
      "transmission_channel": "油气租赁恢复和制度调整影响可开发资源；企业设备全额费用化降低投资税后成本，支持设备需求。",
      "counterevidence": "更多供给可能压低油气价格；财政及贸易风险可抵消投资激励；部分清洁电力支持被终止或限制，不能沿用旧政府文件推论所有绿色资产受益。",
      "confidence": "中高（政策事实），中（ETF传导）",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2025",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2025/pdf/ERP-2025.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2025-01-31",
          "publication_date_precision": "month",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2025.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            9,
            10,
            37,
            85,
            177
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "January 9, 2025",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "拜登卸任前报告延续净零及产业投资，作为被后续政策修正的背景，不能单独代表2025全年。",
          "role": "前政府背景，权重低于后续立法",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2025",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2024",
            "metadata_record_change": "2025-04-03",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "ee118f2ee9138c33c3b7973880424b52a89bc5c053d1f40f12499dc4b4985d42",
          "publication_date_original": "2025-01",
          "normalization_note": "Only month established: conservatively use month end for eligibility; do not invent exact release day."
        },
        {
          "id": "policy_obbba_2025",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-119publ21/pdf/PLAW-119publ21.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2025-07-04",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\policy_obbba_2025.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            67,
            69,
            118,
            120,
            182
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "FULL EXPENSING FOR CERTAIN BUSINESS PROPERTY",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "核读油气租赁、设备费用化、国内研发费用化及风光清洁电力抵免限制条款。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Original enacted law, not consolidated current law. Subsequent amendments and individual effective dates must be reviewed.",
          "sha256": "42f86c3d408bccb1a663c11a51a90d207b3dbc25e689240da51726154be51c8b",
          "publication_date_original": "2025-07-04"
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2026",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2026-BUD.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2025-05-02",
          "publication_date_precision": "day_bibliographic",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05-2007扩展\\government\\raw\\budget_fy2026.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            1,
            11
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "unleashing energy production",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "5月预算提出非国防裁减、国防边境增支及能源增产方向；只读摘要请求，不视为最后拨款。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "bd84de99747bda6c79fb80c6e620ba5f86b2d713e7fa4c8fb8867725366555f1",
          "publication_date_original": "2025-05-02"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "未系统核读2025全部行政命令、关税政策、立法解释与执行数据，不能称完整政策覆盖。"
      ],
      "status": "可用于探索性历史重建，非当年真实事前决策记录",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLE",
        "XLI"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLE",
        "XLI"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLE": 0.5,
        "XLI": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "未系统核读2025全部行政命令、关税政策、立法解释与执行数据，不能称完整政策覆盖。"
      ]
    },
    {
      "year": 2026,
      "as_of": "2026-11-06",
      "next_year": 2027,
      "tone": "截至11月6日暂定观察AI及其电力基础设施需求；不把政府的高增长预测当成收益承诺。",
      "primary_theme": "电力电网/公用事业",
      "primary_etf": "XLU",
      "secondary_theme": "科技研发数字化",
      "secondary_etf": "XLK",
      "policy_stage": "ERP记载行政推动、既有税法支持；2027预算请求；EIA为情景分析，非政府投资指令。",
      "transmission_channel": "AI与数据中心扩建提高可靠供电需求，可能带动发电输配电投资；技术采用与研发投入支持科技产业。",
      "counterevidence": "ERP明确并非每项AI投资都盈利；EIA不同天然气价格、技术成本和政策情景导致供电结构差异，受监管公用事业成本未必及时转嫁；估值和监管风险仍未知。",
      "confidence": "暂定中",
      "sources": [
        {
          "id": "erp_2026",
          "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2026/pdf/ERP-2026.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2026-04-13",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\erp_2026.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            10,
            84,
            85,
            102,
            103,
            160,
            297
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "not every AI-related investment will be profitable",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "能源章将AI时代供电作为重点；AI章提醒商业回报和短期波动风险；供给链及宏观预测作为背景。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": {
            "edition": "2026",
            "previous_annual_edition": "2025",
            "metadata_record_change": "2026-05-05",
            "initial_release_byte_identity": "unproven",
            "note": "Metadata changes may reflect catalog maintenance rather than report content changes."
          },
          "sha256": "c658293fee8b2342b937bc6081d7832154fc3855438a7252f9322d788c5d2845",
          "publication_date_original": "2026-04-13"
        },
        {
          "id": "eia_2026_aeo_narrative",
          "url": "https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO_Narrative.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2026-04-08",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\cbo_eia\\raw\\EIA\\eia_\\eia_2026_aeo_narrative.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            4,
            19,
            20,
            21
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "Total generation grows between 25% and 50% through 2050",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "不同条件情景普遍出现长期发电需求增加，但资源组合和容量投资对价格、政策敏感；不能直接变成2027收益预测。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Downloaded current official historical-vintage artifact; initial-release byte identity unverified.",
          "sha256": "92c1bc9f93537e6e11cac422b66fea420f5b930d6e384607976158980bf91ed0",
          "publication_date_original": "2026-04-08"
        },
        {
          "id": "budget_fy2027",
          "url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/budget_fy2027.pdf",
          "publication_date": "2026-04-03",
          "publication_date_precision": "day",
          "local_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\长期政策与机构展望资料库\\2026-11-05\\erp_policy\\raw\\budget_fy2027.pdf",
          "pdf_pages": [
            8,
            13
          ],
          "evidence_excerpt": "strengthening the manufacturing and defense industrial base",
          "evidence_paraphrase_zh": "预算请求支持投资加速与工业基础，作为宏观政策背景。",
          "role": "方向依据",
          "read_scope": "只核读列出的相关页/段落，未通读全文；文本提取缓存不等同于已阅读",
          "archive_revision_limit": "Historical edition fetched now; no byte-level proof this is the first released version.",
          "sha256": "084cbc33c413f5cb65c216463377ca22da1a59d4742e9f294ee18be5728c8279",
          "publication_date_original": "2026-04-03"
        }
      ],
      "data_gaps": [
        "尚未到2026年底；2027不能回测；需要年终重核文件、政策变化与估值。",
        "尚未核读9月中期预算等全年全部更新，不声称这是最新完整政策集。"
      ],
      "status": "2027暂定观察，未到年末、禁止纳入回测",
      "common_limitations": [
        "只覆盖现有归档中已核读的文件，并非该年所有政策。",
        "政府政策意图不等于企业利润，更不等于ETF未来回报；未读取或根据次年市场收益挑选主题。",
        "ETF映射是宽泛行业代理，须由回测另行检查与原股票仓位的重叠。",
        "同年总统报告和总统预算并非独立预测机构，多文件交叉阅读不能视为独立共识。",
        "历史原件是2026年下载，尚缺首次发布字节级快照；历史日期按目录元数据与原文核对。"
      ],
      "candidate_symbols": [
        "XLU",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "selected_symbols": [
        "XLU",
        "XLK"
      ],
      "sleeve_weights": {
        "XLU": 0.5,
        "XLK": 0.5
      },
      "gaps": [
        "尚未到2026年底；2027不能回测；需要年终重核文件、政策变化与估值。",
        "尚未核读9月中期预算等全年全部更新，不声称这是最新完整政策集。"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "selection_note": "Primary source reading and up-to-two ETF category choices completed before strategy return calculation. 2007 weak generic research/innovation evidence falls back to BIL; original XLK candidate retained as predeclared sensitivity. 2008 and 2020 BIL reflect no sufficiently specific sector signal, not predictions that stocks will fall. Confidence concerns evidence, not probability of profit.",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "file": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\review_2007_2015.json",
      "sha256": "35776a42e61e1cb4575811dcbf8588231075bb476a5960acfe4fe0f5a3098941"
    },
    {
      "file": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\policy_allocation\\review_2016_2026.json",
      "sha256": "32f3c3196246e22289dbdacbe0ac7032dbd93ea0fbdbc196fef64cf0f48d045a"
    }
  ]
}