{
  "checked_at": "2026-11-07T13:01:23.239632+00:00",
  "source_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\outputs\\趋势防守与收益增强研究\\研究结果.json",
  "source_sha256": "562ff8ef29b15199207bd9ee03ee314a0ef5568b0779dace429150be2c8cb4f3",
  "policy_path": "C:\\Users\\Administrator\\Documents\\Codex\\2026-11-04\\windows-codex-ai-1-2-10\\work\\defensive\\policy.json",
  "policy_sha256": "5f62d0003f0681cf627c9f761e65201ab659b1665c62bcc58c0a0e64ff0fa451",
  "sample": "2007-05-30 to 2026-11-03",
  "basis": "SPY/TLT/GLD/BIL 25 each; 5 bps; not the IEF RB01 comparison",
  "results": {
    "PP-monthly": {
      "cagr": 0.0668550209836225,
      "max_drawdown": -0.17507808970553818,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.07438954875733088,
      "cost_usd": 632.3288774129428,
      "mean_bil_weight": 0.24972014675319695
    },
    "Trend10": {
      "cagr": 0.04954994693267145,
      "max_drawdown": -0.08172274073796082,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.05730172265291676,
      "cost_usd": 4604.272010643369,
      "mean_bil_weight": 0.4969823193354911
    },
    "Trend10-half": {
      "cagr": 0.05857232910967469,
      "max_drawdown": -0.12104797427756009,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.06075748810870345,
      "cost_usd": 2698.735890203876,
      "mean_bil_weight": 0.3733486568826867
    },
    "Momentum12": {
      "cagr": 0.056192611556927785,
      "max_drawdown": -0.10807498911653757,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.06051701258701616,
      "cost_usd": 3697.7045425715646,
      "mean_bil_weight": 0.4704770127643201
    },
    "Volatility6": {
      "cagr": 0.05769630932455483,
      "max_drawdown": -0.12786072364587164,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.05930438319314351,
      "cost_usd": 2037.7880575272432,
      "mean_bil_weight": 0.3537506238369517
    }
  },
  "decision": "Reuse previous evidence; no duplicate broad parameter search. Defense lowered historical returns as well as drawdowns. No proof of AI alpha or same-risk superiority."
}